Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.702421 13.687152 15.862244 18.416969 21.329196 24.539153 28.338578
2024-10-20 8.421223 11.056786 14.241157 18.344370 23.460805 29.597358 37.477946
2024-10-27 6.396530 9.292086 13.097761 18.400274 25.520316 34.663359 47.189647
2024-11-03 5.448984 8.624767 13.103833 19.759245 29.246927 42.109471 60.647109
2024-11-10 4.626838 7.916584 12.859748 20.634416 32.310053 48.893148 73.841596
2024-11-17 3.968585 7.294542 12.588785 21.351636 35.132363 55.519097 87.351949
2024-11-24 3.269954 6.450183 11.805617 21.116500 36.415895 59.933741 97.951101
2024-12-01 2.624973 5.555865 10.773687 20.290963 36.604973 62.616128 106.064790
2024-12-08 2.140409 4.848369 9.931961 19.632982 36.930026 65.454229 114.550663
2024-12-15 1.849654 4.454988 9.584061 19.771693 38.574781 70.504717 126.903332
2024-12-22 1.558617 3.997045 9.034340 19.449267 39.342269 74.111657 137.098699
2024-12-29 1.442277 3.895828 9.168723 20.432217 42.548670 82.106667 155.224437
2025-01-05 1.266443 3.630507 8.944419 20.719988 44.566099 88.323032 171.015254
2025-01-12 1.104084 3.362752 8.675204 20.887610 46.385840 94.367034 187.030447
2025-01-19 0.964522 3.119717 8.419890 21.047443 48.202151 100.548752 203.755350
2025-01-26 0.927645 3.145170 8.790908 22.617435 53.029376 112.740880 232.325055
2025-02-02 0.860424 3.069110 8.904574 23.619603 56.765298 123.108631 258.162958
2025-02-09 0.790310 2.967352 8.936894 24.434167 60.172497 133.070764 283.860649
2025-02-16 0.681077 2.715337 8.538974 24.171692 61.203641 138.380028 300.930376
2025-02-23 0.562699 2.397891 7.906475 23.241991 60.639263 140.394153 311.649316
2025-03-02 0.469737 2.137600 7.380736 22.500198 60.410327 143.053265 323.785697
2025-03-09 0.417379 2.008631 7.209889 22.656818 62.292929 150.278840 345.611054
2025-03-16 0.357944 1.832727 6.864099 22.293108 62.883910 154.761955 362.044904